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M94A0670.TXT
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1994-10-21
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Document 0670
DOCN M94A0670
TI Length of phases of HIV disease defined by CD4 lymphocyte count.
DT 9412
AU Carlin JB; Clinical Epidemiology & Biostatistics Unit, Royal Children's;
Hospital, Melbourne.
SO Annu Conf Australas Soc HIV Med. 1993 Oct 28-30;5:47 (abstract no. SE3).
Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE ASHM5/94348985
AB OBJECTIVES: To review and synthesize available knowledge on the usual
lengths of time spent by persons with HIV in each of the clinically
defined phases: (1) CD4 count > 500 (x 10(6)/l), (2) CD4 count 200-500,
(3) CD4 count < 200 but no AIDS-defining illness, (4) AIDS. METHODS:
Extensive literature review performed of all papers reporting relevant
data or statistical modelling. Estimates of phase length were derived
from published models both mathematically and using computer
simulations. RESULTS: Few researchers have studied the natural history
of HIV disease in a way that allows estimates of the length of phases
defined by CD4-count, because of the difficulty of performing necessary
cohort studies and the natural variability of lymphocyte counts. From
three independent studies, estimates ranging between: (1) 4.1 to 8.2
years, (2) 3.9 to 5.2 years and (3) 1.6 to 2.6 years were derived for
the mean duration of the first three phases. Variances are large,
especially for the first phase. CONCLUSIONS: The summary values obtained
in this analysis are useful for economic analysis and health services
planning and may have some limited value for clinical prognosis.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/CLASSIFICATION/DIAGNOSIS/
*IMMUNOLOGY Cohort Studies Computer Simulation Human HIV
Infections/CLASSIFICATION/DIAGNOSIS/*IMMUNOLOGY *Leukocyte Count
Models, Statistical T4 Lymphocytes/*IMMUNOLOGY MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).